The "Game of the Year" was a disappointment - on the field and in the betting accounts - as the wildly popular pick in
Hendon Hooker and
Tennessee just ended up getting trucked by
Georgia. The benefit of looking at the big games early in the week is that public opinion won't sway us. However, that level of betting popularity might have been a red flag in this case, as Hooker left us wanting more.
Then there's
Clemson. The silver lining of the Tigers' loss is that we don't have to watch a consistently devolving
DJ Uiagalelei flail as Dabo Swinney looks on, lacking any secondary moves.
If rankings were all we cared about, there'd be more enticing options in this space, but
LSU wrestled the inside track to the SEC Championship Game away from
Alabama. The Tigers now need to keep their playing level up on the road to validate their position atop the SEC West against a tough team that's coming off a bizarre loss.
We are talking about college kids here, though, and coming down from that high can be overwhelming.
Arkansas lost to
Liberty at home despite outgaining the 8-1 Flames 428-315 simply because the team couldn't come back from trailing 21-0 early to a top-20 defense (according to
Football Outsiders). The Razorbacks provide a different test to LSU, leaning on
KJ Jefferson's ability to supplement
Rocket Sanders in the ground game.
Anthony Richardson and
Florida ran for 210 yards against the Tigers, who also gave up 263 on the ground to Tennessee.
With Sam Pittman and the Razorbacks still needing one more win to qualify for a Bowl game, I expect to see them ready to battle LSU in the trenches in what should be a tight back-and-forth affair.
Line outlook: Bet Arkansas +3
As the calendar was about to flip to October,
Tulane was widely available at 25-1 to win the American Athletic Conference. Currently, the program sits in a three-way tie as the favorite, having run the table in the AAC so far. But now come the real tests - hosting
UCF and
SMU before finishing the regular season at
Cincinnati.
Tulane has the best defense in the AAC, and in its toughest game of the season - a trip to
Kansas State - the team performed well against the Wildcats'
Adrian Martinez, holding their big run-game threat to 59 yards. If speedy
John Rhys Plumlee can return from the concussion he suffered against Cincinnati, the experience from the Kansas State contest will come in handy for the Green Wave.
Running back
Tyjae Spears has taken the reins for a solid but unspectacular offense, and
Michael Pratt has kept the turnovers down for Willie Fritz. Expect well-coached Tulane to get it done in the program's biggest home game in years.
Line outlook: Bet Tulane -2.5
I don't know if the kids are still using the term "big mad," but if they're not, we're bringing it back to describe those who've been fading
TCU lately. The Horned Frogs somehow kept covering as inflated favorites, and the alleged sharp betting community is not happy about it. Maybe the undefeated team's reckoning is coming, but the market is expecting it this time around, and betting on
Texas comes at a tax - a need to win by two scores.
TCU's offensive efficiency metrics have come down in the last month, meeting the Longhorns just outside of the top 10 in the country, while Texas boasts the better defense and is one week removed from its bye week. The pressure is mounting on the Horned Frogs, who are playing in their eighth straight week and just found their way into a coveted top-four spot in the College Football Playoff rankings.
A fresh dangerous
Bijan Robinson will be the difference in giving Texas the win, but given the Longhorns' recent history, betting more than seven points is putting a lot of trust in them. So I'll be shopping for a better price that might pop up this week should money come in on the higher-ranked Horned Frogs.
Line outlook: Lean Texas -7, would bet at -6.5
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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